How will Pep Guardiola affect the Three Lions?

Leicester City’s historic title win was savoured by many but there isn’t much time for lingering emotion in football. The prospect of Pep Guardiola in England is one many a neutral is looking forward to. Tiago Estêvão poses the question of what effect the famed Spaniard can have on the Three Lions.

---

Ever since Guardiola’s agreement with Manchester City was announced, everyone has been speculating about whom will the Spaniard bring in and who will he let go off to revolutionize the team. Just like everyone else, I also enjoy speculating and I too am wondering about his title winning chances in England, for example. But Pep’s influence goes way beyond club level football: wherever he establishes himself as a coach, he brings an entirely new perspective and philosophy to the sport in the country.

Let’s go on a bit of a journey through the years, in Pep’s career. The Catalonian got in charge of Barça for the 2008/09 season and he changed a lot of things around the club – sold some of the stars, promoted some youngsters and built a team with its foundation on Spanish talent. Seven trophies later (including a Champions League title and two La Liga ones), the 2010 World Cup in South Africa came along. As everyone is well aware, Spain won the tournament despite a lot of changes in the squad that had one the Euros just two years prior.

These changes came not just from the managerial swap from Aragones to Del Bosque, but also through the rise of the Catalonian giants under Guardiola. The final’s starting eleven for the Spaniards had the Barça backbone and, consequently, Barcelona’s style of play in it. Puyol, Iniesta, Xavi, Busquets and Piqué were all in the side, with the latter two only being “Culés” upon the arrival of Pep to the club. Without trying to undermine the work of Del Bosque, the new City manager’s influence was undeniable.

Fast forward a couple of seasons and we saw the coach moving to Munich. The Spanish coach had a terrific time with the Bavarian giants and, while one could argue that not winning the Champions League could be big dent in the project, he won every other possible trophy with the club. And only after being in charge for one silverware packed season, the Brazilian World Cup came along and the German national team took most of his stars with it. Lahm, Boateng, Neuer, Schweinsteiger, Muller and Kroos (who left FCB that summer) were all starters in the final against Argentina, and Mario Gotze came from the bench to score the match winning goal. But the connections, once again, don’t end in the players – the style of play of the World Cup winners had deep connections to the one Bayern played that year. Germany ended their campaign as the team with most passes (4157) and an astounding 82% completion rate, very un-German of them. Conclusion: Guardiola has massive influence wherever he coaches so…with the Catalonian jumping ship to Manchester, how can he affect English national football?

Well, if we look at City’s squad we can find a clear difference from the one that Barça or Bayern had pre-Pep, the sky-blues don’t have many Englishmen in their main ranks. With that said, I expect the new boss to buy a couple of talented British players in the midst of the revolution he’s set to make in the summer. Not only that but also promote a couple of the talents who are graduating from the club academy. Looking at the squad at the moment, we can highlight only a couple of English players. Hart and Delph are the first of them. While, the talented goalkeeper will definitely keep his place, there are more questions around the midfielder’s future at the club. Brought in last year from Villa, the center mid didn’t break through this season but I also do not see him leaving just yet. Expect both Toure and one the Brazilian midfielders to leave in the next few months and, despite the chance of Thiago coming in, Delph will most likely stay as a utility player. Another one I want to shine a bit more of light on is Raheem Sterling.
As someone who thoroughly enjoys watching footballers develop and improving their craft, I’ve got extremely high hopes for Raheem. Despite the good start, Sterling ended up having an average season for his talent and quality, to the point of many not even seeing him as a Euro starter. He was often unfit and, much like his team, was too inconsistent in the latter stages. My feeling is that next season might just be his – I can see him develop under Pep similarly to the way Douglas Costa did, becoming one of the club’s creative wall breakers. The 21 year-old Golden Boy winner has the talent to become world class under Guardiola and will hopefully add the necessary work ethic to do so. The English national team needs at least one stand out star, one player that represents the country’s football talent, goals, skills, brilliance – considered by many as a “Golden Generation”, this generation has several individuals who can carry the team on their backs in dire situations and can be those stand out stars. No matter how the performance in the Euro ends up being, players such as Alli, Kane, Dier and Barkley will keep on developing after the tournament. The Man City winger will keep on doing so as well and I’m predicting him to “explode” under Guardiola, becoming “the” player for England.

Other than that, it doesn’t seem like the manager will be able to affect the Three Lions that much, even less so if we have in account that most – if not all – players that will arrive in the summer will be foreign. Not all hope is lost though, since City’s youth system is full of diamonds in the rough ready to be worked on by the Spaniard. Whether it will be Brandon Barker, Buckley-Ricketts, Nmecha, Marcus Wood or Charlie Oliver, I’m sure we’ll see some talented Englishmen breaking through in the next couple of seasons. Not to mention the incredibly talented Patrick Roberts – on loan to Celtic until the end of the 2016/17 season, the winger who was bought to Fulham has done his part to contribute to another Scottish title for Deila’s men. When the youngster comes back, I fully expect him to be in Guardiola’s plans – especially after already being in charge for a full season, the environment for talented youngsters to thrive might be even more beneficial.

Do you think City’s new manager can make an impact in the English National Team? City’s lack of national players will be detrimental but will that make it impossible? If he had to pull from a selection of Englishmen, which player do you think would be the perfect fit for the Citizens and – what will most likely be – their new style of play? Personally, I’d love to see James Ward-Prowse play under Pep – considering the tremendous amount of potential in the Saints youngster. The excitement to see Guardiola in the top British flight is building up and, no matter who he brings in, it will be extremely interesting to follow.

Early birds: Bayern’s brilliant transfer policy

Bayern kicked the summer transfer season into motion by announcing two high-profile signings before the window even started. We take a look at the successful way in which die Roten handle transfers.

To say that transfers are an important aspect of the football business would not only be a massive understatement, but also quite obvious. Now more than ever, clubs throw massive sums of money at each other to poach good players. It is almost as if Florentino Pérez’s galácticos policy became the norm.

This has had many results. A worldwide diaspora of nationalities has globalised football greatly. The nationalistic identities of teams have become increasingly lax. For instance, a recent game between Inter and Udinese became the first-ever Serie A match not to feature Italians in either team’s starting lineups. Barely any English players start for sides like Manchester City.

Another effect is the inflation of the transfer market. The amounts that both clubs and fans consider normal for relatively good players have escalated exponentially in the last decade. Needless to say, Real Madrid have spearheaded this trend. Not only have they broken the transfer fee record regularly for the past fifteen years, but they have no problem in paying absurd amounts of money for lukewarm players.

Moreover, many players who attract the attention of several big clubs often become the centre of what can be best described as auctions. A club will flex its financial muscles as much as it can to lure a certain player in. Some other club says “Oi, we want this bloke too” and one-up the fee and wage. A dispute starts.

Perhaps the best-known recent case is that of Neymar. Real Madrid and Barcelona were at it for more than a year until the Catalans finally won the Brazilian over.

With this sort of panorama, it has become more and more important for clubs to anticipate their own needs and plan ahead. Swift and decisive action in the transfer market has become the deciding factor in getting great players’ signatures in contracts. Naturally, this is compounded by the reputation of teams’ sporting projects.

In this respect, Bayern have shown to be way ahead of the competition in recent years.

The difference a couple of months makes

To illustrate just how quickly a player’s value can rise under the right conditions, I will use the example of Toni Kroos’ and James Rodríguez’s respective transfers to Real Madrid for the 2014-15 season.

Now, both players transferred to Madrid after the 2014 World Cup having performed brilliantly at the tournament. Kroos not only won it. He was statistically the best player, according to FIFA itself. James led an inspired Colombian side to its best ever World Cup finals, attaining the Golden Boot and the competition’s best goal in the process.

Madrid paid €25m for Kroos and €75m for James (per Transfermarkt). Why is there such a massive difference between their price tags? If anything, Kroos should have been more expensive than James, having actually won the World Cup.

The difference is in when and how Real Madrid negotiated for the players.

Kroos was the star of a rather unpleasant tantrum at Bayern. He wanted a bigger wage than the club thought he deserved and was willing to offer. His agent decided to pressure the suits by offering Kroos to big-name clubs across Europe. This was widely publicised in the media. With Bayern unwilling to change their position, the issue became about where Toni would go, not if.

Needless to say, the whole thing was wrapped up before the World Cup started. Real Madrid paid a decent amount of money for a very good player. In the Kroos case, Madrid did what Bayern does 90% of the time. They identified an opportunity, moved quickly to stay ahead of the competition, and got a good signing for a good price.

With James, it was the complete opposite. You could call his signing a knee-jerk transfer operation. Real Madrid took notice of him only after he had turned in such a fantastic performance in the World Cup. With a Golden Boot, a best-goal award and credit for being the leader of his country’s best World Cup performance, Monaco could (and did) charge Real Madrid almost whatever they wanted to.

Kroos was signed before June for less than thirty million Euros. James was signed after July for upwards of seventy.

That’s the difference a couple of months makes.

The Bayern way

This leads us to how Bayern handles their transfers. Obviously, there is a set of deep differences between the whole philosophy of transfers Bayern has and Real Madrid’s. People do not think of Bayern as a club that signs players with marketing high in the priority list. Real Madrid, on the other hand, seem to make some signings with marketing as the only priority.

First off, I think it is pretty evident that Bayern dislike lengthy transfer sagas. A case in point is Javi Martínez. Athletic Bilbao were an absolutely nefarious institution to try to negotiate with. They forced Martínez to deposit a large amount of the fee Bayern paid for him, himself. This created a huge problem, in terms of taxes and legally speaking. As a result, he had to forego much of his salary from the Basque club.

The whole deal was distasteful, at best, and Bayern refuse to take further part in anything similar.

Instead, Bayern opt to sniff out good opportunities in the transfer market before anyone else does. Douglas Costa, for instance. At least according to the media, none of the usual transfer market upsetters took notice of him. He was not the subject of a multinational financial competition. Bayern sneaked in, quickly negotiated with Shakhtar Donetsk, and for a decent fee, Costa packed for München.

Early deals are also part of Bayern’s transfer strategy. Xherdan Shaqiri’s transfer was announced in February 2012, almost five months before the Swiss international joined. This year, both Mats Hummels and Renato Sanches followed that same trend. This no-nonsense approach ensures that the club gets good talent ahead of others. Alternatively, if other clubs refuse to negotiate, the Bavarians have time to seek other options.

A crucial component of the success attained by Bayern’s transfer policy is the sporting project. Bayern’s reputation as one of Europe’s top clubs precedes them. When players sign for Bayern, they sign for a team that contends for all three major titles every season. Even if it is only on paper, that is an exciting prospect.

Clubs like Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea and even Real Madrid themselves are in a different position. While they boast a massive wallet – certainly larger than Bayern’s – they do not have the same competitive status as Bayern. Their overbuying tendencies make them look like they lack an actual project to build on.

Players who are serious about their career aspirations know this. While it may be generally less than the aforementioned teams, Bayern does not exactly offer rubbish wages. But they offer something they do not: a bigger chance to compete for everything there is to win. Domestically and continentally.

This is why, when Bayern does get tangled in a competition to sign someone, players like Renato Sanches move to the Allianz Arena instead of Old Trafford or the Santiago Bernabéu.

The Holy Trinity of transfers?

So, we end up with three important factors:

1. A honed nose to spot talent before everyone else;
2. An early-bird approach to signing targets;
3. A veritable and reputable sporting project.

This may be a gross oversimplification of Bayern’s transfer policy. Nah, strike that. It isan oversimplification. Still, you cannot deny that these three factors, as well as the interactions between them, are a huge part of why Bayern can bomb the market with flash signings announced early. It is why die Roten can frustrate deals that other clubs saw as completed.

Bayern are not afraid to dish out large amounts of money when the players they buy warrant them. However, they are much smarter than other big clubs. Bayern’s most expensive signing ever was Javi Martínez at €40m. Real Madrid’s was Gareth Bale at more than twice that. Bayern have a treble. Real Madrid do not.

The only other club who have a similar approach is, oddly enough, Borussia Dortmund. The Bumblebees have made some terrific signings in recent years. Names like Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Julian Weigl come to mind.

They were completely off everyone’s radar when they arrived at the Signal-Iduna Park. Now, they are almost household names for any knowledgeable football fan. They have added a tremendous amount of quality to Dortmund’s team.

Meanwhile, Manchester United broke an English transfer fee record for Ángel di María, only to sell him after a single disappointing season. Chelsea had to ship out Fernando Torres after he failed to meet the mark. Real Madrid gave Real Sociedad €40m for Asier Illarramendi. He was a chronic benchwarmer and returned to Anoeta for less than half the money.

Bayern (and Dortmund) are living proof that you do not need to show off your wallet every two seconds to build a proper team.

Bayern Munich's big spending might not be as foolish as critics thought

Spending big on new players for the coming season has long been a tried and tested method to overcome disappointment in Bavaria. There's nothing like a bit of retail therapy to shift from introspection and frustration to optimism and looking forward to the next season.

Tuesday's double signing of Mats Hummels (from Borussia Dortmund) and Renato Sanches (from Benfica) for a combined fee of €70 million (plus possible add-ons) once again did the job. The post-Champions League exit doom at Säbener Strasse has been replaced by a sense of anticipation about Carlo Ancelotti's new starting XI. It's an easy enough trick, albeit a little expensive these days.

The media agenda has changed too. For the first time since Guardiola's arrival in June 2013, the Catalan has ceased being the main story. You can almost sense the relief among some commentators: They'll no longer have to discuss the finer points of possession play and counter-counterattacking measures. They can once again employ some classic Bayern tropes to rile supporters and enemies of the German champions alike.

Die Zeit, usually one of the more nuanced voices in German football, lamented Wednesday that the Bavarians were "forming their team by the chequebook" and "both transfers allow for great doubt as to whether the FC Bayern head buyers are investing the club's money wisely. Shopping is fun, but spending money is an art."

The money spent on Sanches might seem excessive, given his youth, but it's actually cheap, given the current market.

Both 18-year-old Sanches (transfer fee: €35 million with add-ons worth a maximum €45 million, in case he wins the Ballon d'Or, etc.) and Hummels did not represent value for money, the broadsheet argued, because the methodology behind the transfers was flawed and skewed by two classic Bayern (mis)behavioral patterns. Buying Hummels was "a demonstration of power" designed to reinforce the Bundesliga status quo and diminish a direct rival, whereas Sanches' capture was one of those cases in which the player had done so well against Bayern -- the midfielder shined in two games against the Germans in the Champions League quarterfinal -- that he elicited a bid from the Reds.

"You might as well throw the money out of the window," the clickbait headline read.

It's true, to a point: Over the past four decades, Bayern have done their best to undermine their own position as the richest team in the league by signing plenty of players for the wrong reasons mentioned and for the wrong fees. It's much harder to make that claim since Michael Reschke's arrival in 2014, however. The former Leverkusen technical director was hired to unearth better players in less obvious places for reasonable money. By and large, he has fulfilled that brief.

Bayern's scouting has become much more sophisticated. It's completely disingenuous to pretend, for example, that Brazilian Douglas Costa was bought from Ukraine on the back of two strong performances against Bayern in the previous season. The 25-year-old was in fact utterly anonymous on the ball in the 7-0 aggregate defeat of Shakhtar Donetsk in the last-16. The only column inches he created had come courtesy of some petty thuggery that should have resulted in dismissal.

Although it's eminently reasonable to question an outlay of €70 million on a single day, the notion of "value" has become incredibly complex. First, it's strictly relative. Mainz were over the moon to sell Shinji Okazaki to Leicester City for €11 million, but the fee delighted the Foxes just as much. One man's extortionate price is another one's bargain, especially if the player in question helps you achieve sporting ambitions.

Paying €35 million for the 27-year-old Hummels, who had only one year left on his contract and isn't the quickest of defenders, looks very expensive by most objective measures, but such measures don't really apply to Bayern. They see the World Cup winner as an upgrade on the injury-prone and unsettled Medhi Benatia (who'll be sold back to Italy for roughly €20 million), the perfect partner to Germany teammate Jérôme Boateng, a natural dressing room leader and, more importantly, a Munich-raised, Bayern-educated player who will ensure the starting XI doesn't become too cosmopolitan and devoid of local identity.

Buying Hummels is a power move by the Bavarian side, but his local roots should help keep them grounded.

Over the course of a four-year deal at the Allianz Arena, the cost for all of that amounts to roughly €21 million per year in wages and transfer fee amortization. It is a gamble probably worth taking to win the Champions League, from Bayern's point of view, regardless of whether Dortmund end up weaker or stronger (as some sympathetic reporters believe) without their captain.

The Black and Yellows, incidentally, have played a bad hand masterfully. By going public with Hummels' wish to move south (ostensibly to adhere to stock market rules), insisting on an all-or-nothing fee and briefing that the player might yet be persuaded to stay, they forced Bayern to agree to a swift resolution strictly on BVB's terms. If recent history is anything to go by, sporting director Michael Zorc will make good use of the money.

The Sanches transfer also illustrates how the very concept of "value" is being reshaped by another factor: the Premier League TV deal. Last year, Bayern Munich were interested in Anthony Martial of AS Monaco and had intended to make the teenager an offer this summer. Manchester United scuppered that plan with a €50 million deal (plus add-ons) in August. The Germans feared that history could repeat itself and thus splashed on Sanches now, in May, wise to the fact that fees will reach only more astronomical levels later this summer (€50 million is the new going rate for a Champions League-level player), and young players will be almost impossible to sign once successfully installed at Premier League clubs.

Critics will say this course puts Bayern in danger of wildly overpaying, just like those English clubs we Germans love to belittle. "SEM: 'Stupid English Money,'" is how Der Spiegel referred to Premier League transfer policy in a recent piece. But in a hyper-inflationary world in which crazy is about to become the new normal, spending stupid money more quickly (and hopefully better) than the competition might be the only sensible option left.

Neymar, Willian, Miranda set for Brazil Olympic call-up

RIO DE JANEIRO, May 15 (Xinhua) -- Brazil coach Dunga has reportedly chosen Barcelona forward Neymar, Chelsea midfielder Willian and Inter Milan centre-back Miranda as his three experienced players for the Olympic Games in August.

According to the Folha de S.Paulo newspaper, Neymar and Willian have been cleared to compete in Rio by their clubs, who are not compelled to release their players for the tournament.

But it is understood Inter Milan manager Roberto Mancini is yet to give his approval for Miranda.

In the event Mancini vetoes Miranda's participation, Dunga will forgo an experienced defender by calling up Bayern Munich winger Douglas Costa, the report said.

Under Olympic football rules, teams are allowed only three players over the age of 23 in their squads.

The Olympic men's football tournament begins on August 4, just five weeks after the final of the centenary edition of the Copa America in the US.

Brazil were forced to leave Neymar out of their Copa America squad after Barcelona refused to allow the 24-year-old to play in both tournaments.

An Olympic gold medal is the only major international football accolade that Brazil have never won and Dunga has been told by the country's football confederation to make the tournament his top priority this year.

The Selecao have been drawn in Group A of the Rio 2016 tournament alongside South Africa, Iraq and Denmark.

Douglas Costa warns Bayern's rivals: It'll be even harder to beat us with Renato Sanches & Hummels!

The Brazil international feels the club's two new signings will make his team even stronger and says that Pep Guardiola is the best coach he has ever worked with in his career

Douglas Costa has warned Bayern Munich’s rivals that his side will be even harder to beat next season with Renato Sanches and Mats Hummels in their ranks.

The Bundesliga champions announced the signing of both players this week with highly-rated Sanches joining from Benfica and Hummels swapping Borussia Dortmund for Allianz Arena.

At just 18 Sanches is one of Europe’s hottest young talents and Costa feels he has a bright future ahead of him and, along with Hummels, will make Bayern a more fearsome proposition.

"I don’t know him [Sanches] as a person. But we played against Benfica in the Champions League, so I know that he is a good player," he told Goal.

"He has a great future ahead of him. I think he will integrate as well as [Kingsley] Coman or I did. I will be here to help him, as other team-mates did with me.

"It will be more difficult for other clubs now. We are very strong already, so it won't be easy to get even better. But the new signings will definitely help us."

Costa only joined Bayern back in July from Shakhtar Donetsk but cannot hide his delight about his move to Germany, where he has won the title in his first season.

"It was fantastic. Bayern changed my life, that's what I say again and again," he added. "I have been received very well, everyone cared about me, the club and the players.

"Here I can play with at a historic club with fantastic footballers, it’s just amazing. I'm very grateful."

Coach Pep Guardiola will depart Allianz Arena this summer for Manchester City and Costa admits the Spaniard has had a big impact on his career.

"Pep is the best coach I ever had. Every day I learn new things. He changed my game completely," he explained.

"Previously I just defended, with Guardiola and Bayern I attack. I don't play just one on one and score goals, I also assist.

"He showed me to trust in my attacking qualities and to keep a cool mind. That didn’t only change my game at Bayern, but also in the national team. Guardiola’s philosophy with much control and having the ball the most time fits my style of play very well."

Costa also revealed how he feels he has improved working under Guardiola and admits he was surprised at how quickly he adjusted to life in the Bundesliga.

"Everything, just everything. Because of Pep I am a much better player. In tactical terms, offence or defence, my passing. To find the right spaces," he said.

"I've been surprised myself about my performances. To settle in so fast and to play with such great team-mates and become German champions – for me it was perfect."